Milwaukee Admirals at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Milwaukee Admirals

1:4

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

MILCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

76%24%

xG: 3.61.9
High danger: 74
Chances: 116
Shots: 4120

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

41Shots on goal20

11Scoring chances6

7High-danger chances4

3.58Expected goals1.87

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–9	3–3	1–2	1.1–1.0
2nd	18–7	4–3	4–2	1.6–0.7
3rd	10–4	4–0	2–0	0.9–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	3	10:28 of the 3rd	9:32	9:32	+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 41
Saves: 40
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.58
GSAx: +2.58

Troy Grosenick

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 16
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: -2.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:12Fredrik Olofsson (0–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
1st 16:40Penalty
1st 17:34Riley Tufte (0–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
2nd 5:41Penalty
2nd 8:00Sam Malinski (0–3)low · 58 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
2nd 19:31Phil Tomasino (1–3)high · 17 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 7:43Penalty
3rd 8:10Penalty
3rd 10:28Fredrik Olofsson (1–4)low · 13 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
3rd 12:31Penalty
3rd 17:43Penalty
3rd 18:36Penalty
3rd 18:36Penalty