AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, March 20

Hartford Wolf Pack at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Hartford Wolf Pack
5:6
Final
Rochester Americans

The sheet

HFDROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
79%21%
xG
3.72.2
High danger
112
Chances
129
Shots
3024

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ROC above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal24
12Scoring chances9
11High-danger chances2
3.71Expected goals2.19

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–64–13–01.5–0.3
2nd7–124–64–11.1–1.2
3rd11–64–24–11.1–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HFD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HFD116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Tokarski
Shots faced
30
Saves
25
Allowed
5
xGA
3.71
GSAx
-1.29
Dylan Garand
Shots faced
24
Saves
18
Allowed
6
xGA
2.18
GSAx
-3.82

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:11Riley Nash (1–0)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 1st 2:26Ryder Korczak (2–0)grade A · rebound · 26 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 1st 9:50Penalty
  • 1st 14:35Penalty
  • 1st 16:13Penalty
  • 1st 19:20Tyson Kozak (2–1)medium · 28 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 2nd 4:21Brennan Othmann (3–1)high · 7 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 2nd 5:07Penalty
  • 2nd 5:23Isak Rosén (3–2)5v4 · low · 45 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 2nd 11:32Ethan Prow (3–3)high · rebound · 34 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 2nd 14:18Brett Murray (3–4)medium · 26 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 3:37Penalty
  • 3rd 4:46Penalty
  • 3rd 6:06Brennan Othmann (4–4)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 3rd 7:29Karl Henriksson (5–4)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
  • 3rd 12:15Jiří Kulich (5–5)medium · 7 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • 3rd 14:17Michael Mersch (5–6)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Dylan Garand