Grand Rapids Griffins at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Grand Rapids Griffins

4:1

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

GRMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

74%26%

xG: 2.62.5
High danger: 71
Chances: 118
Shots: 2333

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal33

11Scoring chances8

7High-danger chances1

2.55Expected goals2.51

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–11	6–2	3–0	1.2–0.9
2nd	7–8	2–4	1–0	0.6–0.7
3rd	7–14	3–2	3–1	0.8–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	12:55 of the 3rd	7:05	7:05	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.51
GSAx: +1.51

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.55
GSAx: -1.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:15Penalty
1st 6:32Zach Aston-Reese (1–0)high · 13 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 10:20Penalty
1st 14:20Penalty
1st 16:33Penalty
1st 17:23Penalty
2nd 4:00Penalty
2nd 7:03Elmer Söderblom (2–0)high · 10 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 9:09Penalty
2nd 12:50Jeff Malott (2–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 7:11Penalty
3rd 12:55Brogan Rafferty (3–1)low · 60 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 17:17Matt Luff (4–1)empty net · high · 10 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 20:00Penalty