Tucson Roadrunners at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

1:4

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

TUCONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

64%36%

xG: 2.62.0
High danger: 55
Chances: 107
Shots: 3323

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal23

10Scoring chances7

5High-danger chances5

2.64Expected goals2.01

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–9	3–1	1–1	0.7–0.6
2nd	12–9	3–3	2–2	1.0–0.8
3rd	9–5	4–3	2–2	0.9–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aaron Dell

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.64
GSAx: +1.64

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.01
GSAx: -1.99

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:59Penalty
1st 1:59Penalty
1st 12:31Penalty
2nd 11:55Samuel Fagemo (0–1)high · 6 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 17:24Penalty
3rd 6:25Josh Doan (1–1)low · 34 ft · beat Aaron Dell
3rd 7:22Penalty
3rd 12:23Penalty
3rd 16:24Akil Thomas (1–2)high · 8 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 19:12Taylor Ward (1–3)empty net · medium · 12 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 19:50Tyler Madden (1–4)empty net · high · 14 ft · beat Matthew Villalta