Abbotsford Canucks at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Abbotsford Canucks

2:3

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

ABBMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

15%85%

xG: 1.75.1
High danger: 47
Chances: 617
Shots: 1245

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

12Shots on goal45

6Scoring chances17

4High-danger chances7

1.66Expected goals5.08

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	2–14	1–7	1–4	0.3–2.1
2nd	6–21	4–5	2–2	0.8–1.8
3rd	4–10	1–5	1–1	0.6–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 45
Saves: 42
Allowed: 3
xGA: 5.08
GSAx: +2.08

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 10
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.66
GSAx: -0.34

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:13Penalty
1st 13:25Kyle Capobianco (0–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 17:19Penalty
1st 17:41Penalty
2nd 3:14Penalty
2nd 5:11Kristian Reichel (0–2)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 5:42Max Sasson (1–2)high · 16 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 7:42Penalty
2nd 8:38Linus Karlsson (2–2)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 6:37Penalty
3rd 8:42Jeffrey Viel (2–3)low · 19 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 15:04Penalty