Chicago Wolves at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Chicago Wolves

1:4

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

CHIIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

21%79%

xG: 2.13.5
High danger: 27
Chances: 614
Shots: 3334

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal34

6Scoring chances14

2High-danger chances7

2.10Expected goals3.47

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	1–4	0–1	0.4–0.7
2nd	11–15	1–4	1–3	0.6–1.5
3rd	14–10	4–6	1–3	1.1–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Keith Kinkaid

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.47
GSAx: -0.53

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.10
GSAx: +1.10

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:02Penalty
1st 10:02Penalty
1st 17:02Penalty
1st 17:45Caedan Bankier (0–1)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
1st 18:26Penalty
3rd 3:59Nathan Sucese (1–1)low · 41 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 4:15Michael Milne (1–2)high · 9 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
3rd 5:03Luke Toporowski (1–3)medium · 24 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
3rd 11:19Penalty
3rd 14:52Penalty
3rd 16:51Michael Milne (1–4)empty net · high · 4 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid