Laval Rocket at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Laval Rocket

3:2

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

LAVBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

53%47%

xG: 2.72.7
High danger: 64
Chances: 913
Shots: 2231

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal31

9Scoring chances13

6High-danger chances4

2.66Expected goals2.67

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–10	1–6	1–2	0.5–1.1
2nd	10–8	7–4	5–1	1.8–0.7
3rd	6–13	1–3	0–1	0.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	6:42	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jakub Dobeš

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.67
GSAx: +0.67

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 13
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.26
GSAx: -0.74

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 6
Saves: 6
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.39
GSAx: +0.39

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:07Emil Heineman (1–0)high · tip · 7 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
1st 8:25Penalty
1st 14:25Penalty
1st 14:25Penalty
1st 17:34Penalty
1st 19:18Zack Ostapchuk (1–1)5v4 · high · tip · 23 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
2nd 1:32Penalty
2nd 1:48Philippe Maillet (2–1)5v4 · medium · snap · 40 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 12:01Penalty
2nd 12:32Brandon Gignac (3–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 15:26Penalty
3rd 15:46Maxence Guenette (3–2)low · tip · 24 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš