Grand Rapids Griffins at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Grand Rapids Griffins

4:3

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

GRRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 2.32.3
High danger: 53
Chances: 910
Shots: 2426

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal26

9Scoring chances10

5High-danger chances3

2.34Expected goals2.28

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–12	2–5	1–3	0.7–1.2
2nd	8–7	4–2	3–0	1.0–0.5
3rd	7–7	3–3	1–0	0.7–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	1	18:44 of the 3rd	1:16	1:16	+0.029 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.28
GSAx: -0.72

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 20
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.34
GSAx: -1.66

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:53Cross Hanas (1–0)low · 26 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 7:08Penalty
1st 12:34Penalty
1st 13:36Marco Kasper (2–0)5v4 · high · tip · 15 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 19:53Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 13:05Penalty
2nd 13:05Penalty
2nd 13:55Antti Tuomisto (3–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 16:46Filip Roos (3–1)low · 37 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 5:40Cole Guttman (3–2)low · 42 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 8:26Penalty
3rd 16:29Cole Guttman (3–3)medium · 17 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 18:44Zach Aston-Reese (4–3)high · 10 ft · beat Drew Commesso