Hartford Wolf Pack at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Hartford Wolf Pack

3:1

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

HFDBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

63%37%

xG: 3.63.2
High danger: 63
Chances: 1610
Shots: 3238

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal38

16Scoring chances10

6High-danger chances3

3.62Expected goals3.25

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–8	6–3	3–1	1.6–1.0
2nd	10–13	5–4	1–2	1.1–1.2
3rd	8–17	5–3	2–0	1.0–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	2	15:14 of the 3rd	4:46	4:46	+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olof Lindbom

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 37
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.25
GSAx: +2.25

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.62
GSAx: +0.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:47Brennan Othmann (1–0)low · 32 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
1st 3:14Penalty
1st 6:23Penalty
1st 11:27Penalty
1st 14:25Alex Belzile (2–0)medium · 26 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 1:48Penalty
2nd 1:48Penalty
2nd 17:51Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 10:19Wyatt Bongiovanni (2–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Olof Lindbom
3rd 15:14Alex Belzile (3–1)high · rebound · 7 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 15:43Penalty
3rd 17:46Penalty