Providence Bruins at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Providence Bruins

4:1

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

PROHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 2.32.4
High danger: 42
Chances: 1010
Shots: 2027

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal27

10Scoring chances10

4High-danger chances2

2.28Expected goals2.36

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–11	5–5	1–0	1.1–0.9
2nd	6–2	4–0	3–0	0.9–0.2
3rd	4–14	1–5	0–2	0.2–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.36
GSAx: +1.36

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 16
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.28
GSAx: -1.72

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 14:32Penalty
1st 16:07Jayson Megna (1–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 16:32Penalty
1st 19:12Logan Day (1–1)low · 58 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 19:23Penalty
2nd 0:36Penalty
2nd 2:05Michael Callahan (2–1)high · 15 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 3:29Penalty
2nd 7:31Penalty
2nd 10:13Penalty
2nd 11:26Anthony Richard (3–1)5v4 · medium · 22 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 15:58Marc McLaughlin (4–1)high · 18 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 17:49Penalty
2nd 17:49Penalty
2nd 17:49Penalty
2nd 19:14Penalty
3rd 2:46Penalty
3rd 7:37Penalty
3rd 7:37Penalty