AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, March 26

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Coachella Valley Firebirds
7:3
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

CVCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
83%17%
xG
5.02.8
High danger
135
Chances
237
Shots
3635

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal35
23Scoring chances7
13High-danger chances5
4.97Expected goals2.75

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st16–910–06–02.2–0.3
2nd11–158–65–41.7–1.7
3rd9–115–12–11.0–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY30:29 of the 3rd19:3119:31+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Chris Driedger
Shots faced
35
Saves
32
Allowed
3
xGA
2.75
GSAx
-0.25
Oscar Dansk
Shots faced
25
Saves
21
Allowed
4
xGA
3.15
GSAx
-0.85
Connor Murphy
Shots faced
11
Saves
8
Allowed
3
xGA
1.83
GSAx
-1.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:00Penalty
  • 1st 5:10Ville Ottavainen (1–0)grade A · wrist · rebound · 2 ft · beat Connor Murphy
  • 1st 5:20Cameron Hughes (2–0)medium · wrist · 31 ft · beat Connor Murphy
  • 1st 10:14Penalty
  • 1st 11:22Max McCormick (3–0)5v4 · high · tip · 15 ft · beat Connor Murphy
  • 2nd 9:49Luke Henman (4–0)medium · snap · 29 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 2nd 11:08William Strömgren (4–1)grade A · wrist · rebound · 22 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 2nd 18:34Riley Damiani (4–2)high · wrist · rebound · 8 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 3rd 0:29Shane Wright (5–2)medium · 11 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 3rd 0:56Connor Carrick (6–2)low · slap · 66 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 3rd 5:12Penalty
  • 3rd 5:12Penalty
  • 3rd 5:12Penalty
  • 3rd 5:12Penalty
  • 3rd 7:39Cale Fleury (7–2)medium · 5 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
  • 3rd 9:15Penalty
  • 3rd 19:57Jordan Oesterle (7–3)low · slap · 34 ft · beat Chris Driedger