Ontario Reign at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Ontario Reign

3:2

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

ONTSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 2.13.4
High danger: 37
Chances: 611
Shots: 2736

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal36

6Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances7

2.12Expected goals3.37

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–14	2–4	2–4	0.7–1.4
2nd	14–11	3–5	1–3	1.1–1.3
3rd	4–11	1–2	0–0	0.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aaron Dell

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 34
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.37
GSAx: +1.37

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.12
GSAx: -0.88

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:15Brandon Coe (0–1)high · 16 ft · beat Aaron Dell
1st 13:04Nathan Todd (0–2)high · 12 ft · beat Aaron Dell
2nd 6:44Akil Thomas (1–2)low · 51 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 9:53Penalty
2nd 10:38Penalty
2nd 16:58Penalty
2nd 18:53Charles Hudon (2–2)5v4 · medium · 26 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 4:51Penalty
3rd 13:39Penalty
3rd 16:22Taylor Ward (3–2)low · 41 ft · beat Magnus Chrona