San Jose Barracuda at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

San Jose Barracuda

2:4

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

SJCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 1.72.7
High danger: 16
Chances: 411
Shots: 2932

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal32

4Scoring chances11

1High-danger chances6

1.73Expected goals2.73

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–13	0–4	0–2	0.2–1.2
2nd	11–10	2–3	1–3	0.8–0.9
3rd	11–9	2–4	0–1	0.7–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 28
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.73
GSAx: -1.27

Connor Murphy

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.72
GSAx: -0.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:49Rory Kerins (0–1)high · snap · 15 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
1st 4:02Penalty
1st 16:42Penalty
1st 17:12Jérémie Poirier (0–2)5v4 · low · wrist · 56 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 1:48Penalty
2nd 5:48Ben Jones (0–3)high · snap · 12 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 7:03Penalty
2nd 12:49Penalty
2nd 19:30Penalty
2nd 19:39Cole Cassels (1–3)5v4 · high · snap · 16 ft · beat Connor Murphy
3rd 17:51Adam Klapka (1–4)empty net · low · wrist · 150 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 18:57Brandon Coe (2–4)medium · snap · 15 ft · beat Connor Murphy