Charlotte Checkers at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Charlotte Checkers

4:1

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

CLTBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

95%5%

xG: 3.51.2
High danger: 80
Chances: 153
Shots: 3419

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal19

15Scoring chances3

8High-danger chances0

3.48Expected goals1.21

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	17–6	6–1	3–0	1.4–0.4
2nd	8–7	5–1	3–0	1.0–0.6
3rd	9–6	4–1	2–0	1.1–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.48
GSAx: -0.52

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 18
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.20
GSAx: +0.20

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:52Penalty
1st 5:40Penalty
1st 6:20Michael Benning (1–0)5v4 · high · 34 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 7:42Casey Fitzgerald (2–0)low · 46 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 15:02Penalty
2nd 7:12Penalty
2nd 10:59Penalty
2nd 13:30Wilmer Skoog (3–0)medium · 34 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 5:37Penalty
3rd 13:06Penalty
3rd 13:46Matthew Maggio (3–1)5v4 · medium · 35 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 17:42Will Lockwood (4–1)empty net · medium · 22 ft · beat Jakub Skarek