Rockford IceHogs at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Rockford IceHogs

5:1

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

RFDMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 1.91.9
High danger: 52
Chances: 56
Shots: 2123

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal23

5Scoring chances6

5High-danger chances2

1.93Expected goals1.94

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–7	1–2	1–1	0.5–0.6
2nd	11–4	3–1	3–0	1.1–0.3
3rd	5–12	1–3	1–1	0.4–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Troy Grosenick

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 16
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.93
GSAx: -3.07

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 12
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.09
GSAx: +0.09

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 10
Saves: 10
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.84
GSAx: +0.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:28Penalty
1st 4:34Cole Guttman (1–0)5v4 · high · rebound · 10 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
1st 6:45Louis Crevier (2–0)low · 66 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
1st 7:30Wade Allison (2–1)high · 15 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 13:46Penalty
2nd 2:35Penalty
2nd 4:42Mike Hardman (3–1)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
2nd 17:08Penalty
3rd 4:03Penalty
3rd 5:06Penalty
3rd 12:16Penalty
3rd 13:22Rem Pitlick (4–1)4v5 · high · 14 ft · beat Troy Grosenick
3rd 18:48Austin Strand (5–1)empty net · low · 118 ft · beat Troy Grosenick