AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 29

Bakersfield Condors at Henderson Silver Knights

The Dollar Loan Center · Henderson, NV

Bakersfield Condors
2:4
Final
Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

BAKHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
47%53%
xG
2.83.2
High danger
710
Chances
1114
Shots
2726

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HSK above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal26
11Scoring chances14
7High-danger chances10
2.84Expected goals3.19

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–132–70–50.4–1.6
2nd10–106–44–31.3–1.1
3rd12–33–33–21.1–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Vikman
Shots faced
27
Saves
25
Allowed
2
xGA
2.84
GSAx
+0.84
Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
26
Saves
22
Allowed
4
xGA
3.19
GSAx
-0.81

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:19Penalty
  • 1st 3:28Lane Pederson (1–0)5v4 · medium · wrist · 27 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
  • 1st 5:36Adam Cracknell (1–1)high · tip · 9 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 7:47Penalty
  • 1st 13:12Penalty
  • 1st 14:38Penalty
  • 1st 19:53Penalty
  • 2nd 6:24Dylan Holloway (2–1)medium · snap · 21 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
  • 2nd 9:34Penalty
  • 2nd 9:42Penalty
  • 2nd 13:52Dysin Mayo (2–2)low · wrist · 25 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 14:45Penalty
  • 2nd 18:00Grigori Denisenko (2–3)medium · wrist · 19 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 11:58Mason Geertsen (2–4)high · tip · 11 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 14:55Penalty