Springfield Thunderbirds at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Springfield Thunderbirds

3:4

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

SPRUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

35%65%

xG: 2.93.5
High danger: 29
Chances: 1416
Shots: 2936

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal36

14Scoring chances16

2High-danger chances9

2.89Expected goals3.53

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–13	4–5	1–2	0.9–1.1
2nd	12–13	7–7	1–3	1.4–1.4
3rd	7–10	3–4	0–4	0.6–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 32
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.53
GSAx: -0.47

Akira Schmid

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.89
GSAx: -0.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:00Shane Bowers (0–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 6:08Penalty
1st 8:46Penalty
1st 12:26Will MacKinnon (0–2)low · 59 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 14:33Penalty
1st 16:28Tanner Dickinson (1–2)5v4 · medium · 34 ft · beat Akira Schmid
1st 17:57Erik Middendorf (1–3)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 19:32Penalty
2nd 3:29Penalty
2nd 6:45Penalty
2nd 7:35Penalty
2nd 8:24Penalty
2nd 11:04Penalty
2nd 11:04Penalty
2nd 11:04Penalty
2nd 12:15Will Bitten (2–3)4v5 · high · 16 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 15:27Ryan Suzuki (3–3)medium · 17 ft · beat Akira Schmid
3rd 15:17Penalty
3rd 16:42Shane Bowers (3–4)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Colten Ellis