Rockford IceHogs at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Rockford IceHogs

6:0

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

RFDCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

68%32%

xG: 3.73.0
High danger: 114
Chances: 1610
Shots: 3034

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal34

16Scoring chances10

11High-danger chances4

3.68Expected goals2.96

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–7	8–2	5–0	1.9–0.5
2nd	6–10	1–5	0–3	0.3–1.2
3rd	10–17	7–3	6–1	1.5–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 34
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.96
GSAx: +2.96

Adam Scheel

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 14
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.81
GSAx: -0.19

Keith Kinkaid

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 10
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: -2.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:06Penalty
1st 5:06Zach Sanford (1–0)grade A · 9 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
1st 6:33David Gust (2–0)5v4 · medium · 10 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
1st 12:05Rem Pitlick (3–0)high · 4 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
1st 15:38Penalty
1st 16:17Zach Sanford (4–0)4v5 · high · 13 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
2nd 4:15Penalty
2nd 4:57Penalty
2nd 10:56Penalty
2nd 17:21Penalty
2nd 17:21Penalty
3rd 0:49Penalty
3rd 10:28Penalty
3rd 12:08Michal Teplý (5–0)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Adam Scheel
3rd 13:39Cole Guttman (6–0)low · 36 ft · beat Adam Scheel
3rd 19:51Penalty