Bakersfield Condors at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Bakersfield Condors

3:4

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

BAKONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

78%22%

xG: 3.32.3
High danger: 71
Chances: 128
Shots: 3529

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal29

12Scoring chances8

7High-danger chances1

3.29Expected goals2.25

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–10	3–2	2–0	0.9–0.7
2nd	10–13	4–4	2–1	1.1–1.1
3rd	12–6	5–2	3–0	1.3–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 32
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.29
GSAx: +0.29

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: -1.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:24Francesco Pinelli (0–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 8:57Penalty
1st 11:56Penalty
1st 14:21Penalty
1st 15:23Raphael Lavoie (1–1)5v4 · low · 52 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 3:37Penalty
2nd 3:37Penalty
2nd 9:04Penalty
2nd 9:04Penalty
2nd 9:04Penalty
2nd 9:04Penalty
2nd 9:04Penalty
2nd 12:36Penalty
2nd 12:36Penalty
2nd 13:36Penalty
2nd 15:13Adam Erne (2–1)4v5 · high · rebound · 10 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 17:15Andre Lee (2–2)medium · 22 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 17:58Penalty
3rd 2:56Nikita Pavlychev (2–3)medium · 17 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 8:12Penalty
3rd 9:21Seth Griffith (3–3)5v4 · grade A · 14 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 9:50Penalty
3rd 11:04T.J. Tynan (3–4)5v4 · medium · 9 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 19:47Penalty
3rd 19:47Penalty
3rd 19:47Penalty
3rd 19:47Penalty
3rd 19:47Penalty