San Jose Barracuda at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

San Jose Barracuda

4:1

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

SJCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

53%47%

xG: 2.62.3
High danger: 23
Chances: 87
Shots: 3331

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal31

8Scoring chances7

2High-danger chances3

2.57Expected goals2.27

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–9	2–2	0–0	1.0–0.5
2nd	13–12	3–3	0–2	0.7–1.1
3rd	6–10	3–2	2–1	0.9–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	11:31	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.27
GSAx: +1.27

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.37
GSAx: -0.63

Connor Murphy

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 10
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.20
GSAx: -0.80

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:56Ethan Cardwell (1–0)low · wrist · 46 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 10:18Penalty
1st 10:24Penalty
1st 11:11Jack Thompson (2–0)low · wrist · 36 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 18:24Penalty
2nd 9:48Danil Gushchin (3–0)low · wrist · 26 ft · beat Connor Murphy
3rd 3:40Sam Morton (3–1)medium · wrist · 22 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 5:16Penalty
3rd 13:15Penalty
3rd 16:22Nathan Todd (4–1)empty net · grade A · backhand · 4 ft · beat Connor Murphy