Utica Comets at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Utica Comets

4:1

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

UTCBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

71%29%

xG: 2.21.8
High danger: 42
Chances: 85
Shots: 2924

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal24

8Scoring chances5

4High-danger chances2

2.24Expected goals1.82

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–7	1–0	0–0	0.6–0.3
2nd	10–10	5–5	3–2	1.2–1.3
3rd	9–7	2–0	1–0	0.5–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: -1.76

Akira Schmid

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.82
GSAx: +0.82

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:03Santeri Hatakka (1–0)low · 23 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 9:08Penalty
2nd 3:55Penalty
2nd 3:55Penalty
2nd 3:55Penalty
2nd 3:55Penalty
2nd 16:28Graeme Clarke (2–0)high · 7 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 18:16Shane Bowers (3–0)high · 16 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 18:42Xavier Parent (4–0)grade A · 23 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 8:18Penalty
3rd 12:00Alex Jefferies (4–1)low · 17 ft · beat Akira Schmid
3rd 13:03Penalty