Manitoba Moose at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Manitoba Moose

3:4

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

MBABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

34%66%

xG: 2.23.1
High danger: 45
Chances: 1012
Shots: 2133

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal33

10Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances5

2.22Expected goals3.07

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–12	5–3	3–1	1.3–1.1
2nd	4–8	2–5	1–1	0.5–0.8
3rd	5–13	3–4	0–3	0.5–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	4:20	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.07
GSAx: -0.93

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.22
GSAx: -0.78

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:10Ville Heinola (1–0)medium · 14 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 3:52Penalty
1st 6:05Aidan McDonough (1–1)low · 22 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 9:08Penalty
1st 10:40Jeff Malott (2–1)5v4 · high · 21 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 12:45Penalty
1st 15:39Penalty
1st 16:32Sheldon Dries (2–2)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 17:32Jett Woo (2–3)medium · rebound · 32 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 5:16Penalty
2nd 13:25Linus Karlsson (2–4)medium · 12 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 15:32Penalty
2nd 15:32Penalty
2nd 15:32Penalty
2nd 17:05Penalty
3rd 4:00Penalty
3rd 12:40Penalty
3rd 13:25Dominic Toninato (3–4)4v5 · medium · 18 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo