AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, April 3

Springfield Thunderbirds at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Springfield Thunderbirds
3:6
Final
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

SPRTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
32%68%
xG
2.93.5
High danger
49
Chances
814
Shots
3628

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal28
8Scoring chances14
4High-danger chances9
2.90Expected goals3.46

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–63–12–10.8–0.6
2nd11–123–60–30.9–1.4
3rd16–102–72–51.2–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR35:42 of the 3rd14:1814:18+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
36
Saves
33
Allowed
3
xGA
2.90
GSAx
-0.10
Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
28
Saves
22
Allowed
6
xGA
3.47
GSAx
-2.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:01Mikko Kokkonen (0–1)low · 41 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 8:28Ryan Suzuki (1–1)low · 22 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 9:16Penalty
  • 1st 11:59Penalty
  • 1st 11:59Penalty
  • 1st 12:07Logan Shaw (1–2)5v4 · grade A · 18 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 18:50Alex Steeves (1–3)low · 31 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 0:23Penalty
  • 2nd 0:23Penalty
  • 2nd 3:10Jakub Vrana (2–3)5v4 · low · 30 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 5:41Penalty
  • 2nd 5:41Penalty
  • 2nd 5:41Penalty
  • 2nd 10:02Jakub Vrana (3–3)medium · 22 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 11:31Max Lajoie (3–4)grade A · rebound · 4 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 13:33Penalty
  • 3rd 0:15Isaac Johnson (3–5)medium · 26 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 5:42Josiah Slavin (3–6)high · 7 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 9:44Penalty
  • 3rd 13:53Penalty
  • 3rd 13:53Penalty
  • 3rd 13:53Penalty
  • 3rd 13:53Penalty
  • 3rd 13:53Penalty
  • 3rd 14:17Penalty