Bridgeport Islanders at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Bridgeport Islanders

4:1

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

BRIHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

66%34%

xG: 2.42.0
High danger: 42
Chances: 107
Shots: 2729

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal29

10Scoring chances7

4High-danger chances2

2.44Expected goals2.02

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–7	4–0	2–0	1.0–0.3
2nd	12–10	5–2	1–0	1.0–0.6
3rd	7–12	1–5	1–2	0.4–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ken Appleby

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.02
GSAx: +1.02

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.44
GSAx: -1.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:41Alex Jefferies (1–0)high · rebound · 8 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 15:57Penalty
1st 16:51Penalty
1st 17:56Penalty
2nd 1:57Aidan Fulp (2–0)medium · 22 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 7:41Penalty
2nd 15:05Ryder Korczak (2–1)low · 54 ft · beat Ken Appleby
2nd 16:39Penalty
2nd 16:39Penalty
2nd 17:29William Dufour (3–1)medium · 18 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 1:45Penalty
3rd 4:58Penalty
3rd 11:13Penalty
3rd 18:12Carsen Twarynski (4–1)empty net · low · 133 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 19:15Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty