Cleveland Monsters at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Cleveland Monsters

1:6

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

CLEROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 2.12.6
High danger: 25
Chances: 79
Shots: 2725

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal25

7Scoring chances9

2High-danger chances5

2.06Expected goals2.60

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–11	2–4	0–2	0.6–1.2
2nd	10–5	2–0	1–0	0.8–0.3
3rd	8–9	3–5	1–3	0.7–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLE	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.06
GSAx: +1.06

Malcolm Subban

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 19
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.60
GSAx: -3.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:19Nikita Novikov (0–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
1st 6:12Graham Slaggert (0–2)medium · 20 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
1st 12:51Penalty
1st 14:41Viktor Neuchev (0–3)5v4 · high · 39 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
1st 17:00Luca Del Bel Belluz (1–3)low · 37 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 17:26Mason Jobst (1–4)low · 40 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
1st 18:49Penalty
2nd 7:22Linus Weissbach (1–5)low · 41 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
2nd 12:31Penalty
3rd 3:15Penalty
3rd 3:15Penalty
3rd 5:17Zach Metsa (1–6)medium · 28 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
3rd 7:25Penalty
3rd 10:54Penalty
3rd 10:54Penalty
3rd 10:54Penalty
3rd 10:54Penalty
3rd 18:06Penalty
3rd 19:13Penalty
3rd 19:13Penalty