Colorado Eagles at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Colorado Eagles

3:2

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

COLTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

22%78%

xG: 2.13.3
High danger: 27
Chances: 814
Shots: 2431

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal31

8Scoring chances14

2High-danger chances7

2.06Expected goals3.33

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–7	2–3	1–1	0.6–0.6
2nd	9–16	4–6	1–4	1.0–1.7
3rd	7–8	2–5	0–2	0.5–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.33
GSAx: +1.33

Ben Kraws

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 21
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.06
GSAx: -0.94

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:35Luke Krys (0–1)low · 63 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
1st 5:04Jason Polin (1–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Ben Kraws
1st 7:44Penalty
1st 8:06Brad Hunt (2–1)5v4 · low · 60 ft · beat Ben Kraws
1st 10:42Penalty
1st 14:18Penalty
1st 19:35Keaton Middleton (3–1)low · 56 ft · beat Ben Kraws
2nd 0:30Penalty
2nd 1:16Penalty
2nd 15:18Penalty
2nd 18:59Penalty
3rd 8:44Mavrik Bourque (3–2)medium · 11 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
3rd 15:43Penalty