AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, April 3

Tucson Roadrunners at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Tucson Roadrunners
1:4
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

TUCBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
62%38%
xG
3.93.4
High danger
106
Chances
1312
Shots
4134

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

41Shots on goal34
13Scoring chances12
10High-danger chances6
3.91Expected goals3.37

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–106–45–31.6–1.2
2nd19–117–45–21.9–1.0
3rd9–130–40–10.5–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
41
Saves
40
Allowed
1
xGA
3.91
GSAx
+2.91
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
34
Saves
30
Allowed
4
xGA
3.37
GSAx
-0.63

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:18Max Wanner (0–1)medium · wrist · 19 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 2:45Penalty
  • 1st 2:45Penalty
  • 1st 2:45Penalty
  • 1st 7:43Carter Savoie (0–2)grade A · wrist · rebound · 9 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 10:43Penalty
  • 1st 13:08Penalty
  • 1st 17:34Penalty
  • 2nd 4:25Ben Gleason (0–3)medium · slap · 24 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 12:56Penalty
  • 2nd 15:01Penalty
  • 2nd 15:24Penalty
  • 2nd 16:56Max Szuber (1–3)medium · wrist · 14 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 7:44Penalty
  • 3rd 17:34Seth Griffith (1–4)empty net · low · wrist · 15 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 18:26Penalty
  • 3rd 18:26Penalty
  • 3rd 18:26Penalty
  • 3rd 18:39Penalty