Manitoba Moose at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Manitoba Moose

2:5

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

MBABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 2.32.6
High danger: 26
Chances: 711
Shots: 2627

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal27

7Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances6

2.35Expected goals2.57

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–10	2–2	0–1	0.6–0.6
2nd	9–13	3–7	1–3	1.0–1.5
3rd	9–4	2–2	1–2	0.8–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Zach Sawchenko

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.35
GSAx: +0.35

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 19
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.37
GSAx: -2.63

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 3
Saves: 3
Allowed: 0
xGA: 0.20
GSAx: +0.20

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:42Penalty
1st 4:26Sheldon Dries (0–1)4v5 · medium · 16 ft · beat Collin Delia
1st 10:36Penalty
1st 13:34Tristen Nielsen (0–2)low · 53 ft · beat Collin Delia
1st 18:21Tyrel Bauer (1–2)low · 58 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
2nd 0:19Penalty
2nd 1:39Sheldon Dries (1–3)5v4 · high · 15 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 4:22Penalty
2nd 7:50Penalty
2nd 13:17Jeffrey Viel (2–3)grade A · 12 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
2nd 13:46Aatu Räty (2–4)low · 41 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 14:15Penalty
3rd 5:40Penalty
3rd 15:57Linus Karlsson (2–5)high · 14 ft · beat Collin Delia