Rockford IceHogs at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Rockford IceHogs

0:3

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

RFDGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 1.92.6
High danger: 34
Chances: 710
Shots: 2432

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal32

7Scoring chances10

3High-danger chances4

1.94Expected goals2.65

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–12	3–4	0–0	0.5–1.1
2nd	7–11	2–3	2–3	0.7–0.8
3rd	10–9	2–3	1–1	0.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.65
GSAx: -0.35

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 24
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.94
GSAx: +1.94

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:40Penalty
1st 1:03Jonatan Berggren (0–1)5v4 · medium · snap · 25 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 1:26Penalty
1st 16:12Penalty
2nd 10:43Penalty
2nd 16:54Penalty
2nd 17:20Zach Aston-Reese (0–2)5v4 · high · slap · 25 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 18:49Penalty
2nd 19:15Penalty
3rd 12:24Penalty
3rd 15:00Penalty
3rd 15:32Taro Hirose (0–3)low · 46 ft · beat Drew Commesso