AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, April 5

Hershey Bears at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Hershey Bears
7:2
Final
Iowa Wild

The sheet

HERIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
72%28%
xG
3.52.5
High danger
74
Chances
1710
Shots
2622

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
IA above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal22
17Scoring chances10
7High-danger chances4
3.49Expected goals2.46

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–83–31–20.6–1.0
2nd12–47–13–11.4–0.3
3rd8–107–63–11.5–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Wallstedt
Shots faced
26
Saves
19
Allowed
7
xGA
3.49
GSAx
-3.51
Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
22
Saves
20
Allowed
2
xGA
2.46
GSAx
+0.46

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:20Ethen Frank (1–0)low · 13 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 1st 7:57Penalty
  • 1st 11:23Logan Day (2–0)low · 63 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 1st 16:25Penalty
  • 1st 18:21Michael Milne (2–1)5v4 · grade A · 8 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 2nd 4:08Ethen Frank (3–1)high · 9 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 2nd 6:59Penalty
  • 2nd 7:57Penalty
  • 2nd 10:31Penalty
  • 2nd 12:18Alex Limoges (4–1)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 2nd 14:16Ethen Frank (5–1)medium · 29 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 2nd 15:16Penalty
  • 3rd 0:36Mike Vecchione (6–1)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 3rd 1:44Penalty
  • 3rd 1:44Penalty
  • 3rd 4:09Vladislav Firstov (6–2)high · 6 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 3rd 9:32Penalty
  • 3rd 14:10Henrik Rybinski (7–2)high · 12 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 3rd 17:46Penalty
  • 3rd 17:46Penalty