AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, April 5

Calgary Wranglers at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Calgary Wranglers
5:2
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CGYBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
56%44%
xG
2.92.7
High danger
44
Chances
137
Shots
3037

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal37
13Scoring chances7
4High-danger chances4
2.88Expected goals2.71

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–126–32–21.1–0.9
2nd13–104–31–20.9–0.8
3rd7–153–11–00.9–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK30:00 of the 3rd20:0018:45+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Murphy
Shots faced
37
Saves
35
Allowed
2
xGA
2.71
GSAx
+0.71
Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
30
Saves
25
Allowed
5
xGA
2.89
GSAx
-2.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:36Penalty
  • 1st 4:16Sam Gagner (0–1)low · wrist · 27 ft · beat Connor Murphy
  • 1st 12:37Penalty
  • 1st 13:40Penalty
  • 1st 14:30Mitch McLain (1–1)high · wrist · 9 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 17:06Penalty
  • 2nd 4:05William Strömgren (2–1)medium · tip · 8 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 6:39Penalty
  • 2nd 6:39Penalty
  • 2nd 8:45Penalty
  • 2nd 8:45Penalty
  • 2nd 15:44Rory Kerins (3–1)low · slap · 25 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 19:35Jakob Pelletier (4–1)high · wrist · 12 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 4:46Penalty
  • 3rd 5:57Penalty
  • 3rd 9:52Penalty
  • 3rd 10:54Lane Pederson (4–2)5v4 · low · slap · 40 ft · beat Connor Murphy
  • 3rd 19:44Brett Sutter (5–2)empty net · medium · backhand · 27 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue