AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, April 6

Chicago Wolves at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Chicago Wolves
4:5
Final / SO
Manitoba Moose

The sheet

CHIMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
53%47%
xG
2.42.9
High danger
64
Chances
89
Shots
2634

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MB above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal34
8Scoring chances9
6High-danger chances4
2.39Expected goals2.86

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–83–33–10.8–0.9
2nd10–123–33–21.2–1.0
3rd6–112–30–10.3–0.8
OT2–30–00–00.1–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CHI0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CHI214:54 of the 3rd5:060:38+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Adam Scheel
Shots faced
34
Saves
30
Allowed
4
xGA
2.86
GSAx
-1.14
Thomas Milic
Shots faced
26
Saves
22
Allowed
4
xGA
2.39
GSAx
-1.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 9:11Penalty
  • 1st 16:19Cole Schneider (1–0)high · rebound · 9 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 1st 17:12Penalty
  • 1st 18:11Penalty
  • 1st 18:35Penalty
  • 2nd 5:01Dominic Toninato (1–1)high · rebound · 8 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 2nd 10:27Penalty
  • 2nd 13:13Penalty
  • 2nd 13:46Brad Lambert (1–2)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 2nd 19:10Chris Terry (2–2)low · 40 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 0:29Penalty
  • 3rd 10:38Jeff Malott (2–3)low · 33 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 3rd 14:54Kristian Reichel (2–4)medium · 24 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 3rd 15:32Cavan Fitzgerald (3–4)low · 51 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 15:48Hudson Elynuik (4–4)medium · 22 ft · beat Thomas Milic
  • 3rd 18:12Penalty