Utica Comets at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Utica Comets

1:5

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

UTCTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

80%20%

xG: 3.11.6
High danger: 41
Chances: 117
Shots: 3719

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal19

11Scoring chances7

4High-danger chances1

3.15Expected goals1.63

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–12	3–5	0–0	0.8–1.1
2nd	14–4	3–2	2–1	1.1–0.5
3rd	12–3	5–0	2–0	1.2–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 36
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.15
GSAx: +2.15

Akira Schmid

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 14
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.63
GSAx: -3.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:55Kyle Criscuolo (1–0)low · 40 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
1st 4:00Roni Hirvonen (1–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Akira Schmid
1st 6:53Alex Steeves (1–2)low · 17 ft · beat Akira Schmid
1st 7:14Penalty
1st 7:14Penalty
1st 14:34Joseph Blandisi (1–3)medium · 30 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 8:11Penalty
2nd 9:46Roni Hirvonen (1–4)5v4 · medium · 26 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 14:11Penalty
2nd 18:32Penalty
2nd 19:23Penalty
2nd 19:51Logan Shaw (1–5)high · 18 ft · beat Akira Schmid
3rd 5:31Penalty
3rd 7:29Penalty
3rd 7:29Penalty
3rd 8:28Penalty
3rd 11:50Penalty