Colorado Eagles at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Colorado Eagles

1:4

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

COLHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 2.62.5
High danger: 53
Chances: 97
Shots: 4031

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal31

9Scoring chances7

5High-danger chances3

2.61Expected goals2.47

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–15	3–2	2–2	0.8–1.2
2nd	13–7	2–3	1–1	0.8–0.7
3rd	13–9	4–2	2–0	1.0–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Isaiah Saville

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 39
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.61
GSAx: +1.61

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.47
GSAx: -1.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:50Penalty
1st 4:34Spencer Smallman (1–0)high · wrist · 8 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
1st 11:39Lukas Cormier (1–1)low · wrist · 89 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
1st 14:05Byron Froese (1–2)high · backhand · 10 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
1st 14:24Penalty
2nd 2:08Penalty
2nd 6:51Penalty
2nd 7:11Penalty
2nd 8:42Penalty
2nd 9:34Sheldon Rempal (1–3)5v4 · medium · slap · 22 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 18:08Penalty
3rd 8:32Penalty
3rd 15:17Penalty
3rd 19:48Jakub Brabenec (1–4)empty net · medium · wrist · 21 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov