Syracuse Crunch at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Syracuse Crunch

2:5

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

SYRBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

19%81%

xG: 2.03.1
High danger: 28
Chances: 816
Shots: 1927

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal27

8Scoring chances16

2High-danger chances8

1.96Expected goals3.14

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–8	2–3	0–1	0.4–0.7
2nd	9–10	2–7	1–4	0.9–1.4
3rd	4–9	4–6	1–3	0.6–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hugo Alnefelt

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.14
GSAx: -1.86

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 17
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.96
GSAx: -0.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 14:33Garrett Pilon (0–1)medium · 19 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
2nd 1:21Gage Goncalves (1–1)low · 34 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 3:21Penalty
2nd 3:59Penalty
2nd 5:17Garrett Pilon (1–2)5v4 · high · 21 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
2nd 5:51Zack Ostapchuk (1–3)5v4 · low · 40 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
2nd 6:17Penalty
2nd 14:56Penalty
2nd 17:23Penalty
2nd 18:44Jack Finley (2–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 26 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
3rd 5:05Lassi Thomson (2–4)medium · 20 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
3rd 11:37Penalty
3rd 14:20Penalty
3rd 17:14Oskar Pettersson (2–5)empty net · low · 107 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
3rd 17:49Penalty