Grand Rapids Griffins at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Grand Rapids Griffins

1:3

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

GRRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 1.42.5
High danger: 35
Chances: 59
Shots: 2027

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal27

5Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances5

1.39Expected goals2.46

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–7	1–2	1–0	0.6–0.5
2nd	7–12	4–3	2–2	0.7–0.9
3rd	3–8	0–4	0–3	0.0–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael Hutchinson

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.47
GSAx: -0.53

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.39
GSAx: +0.39

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:11Penalty
1st 16:53Carter Mazur (1–0)low · 11 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 19:31Penalty
1st 19:31Penalty
2nd 0:53Penalty
2nd 5:27Penalty
2nd 18:27Luke Philp (1–1)low · 37 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
3rd 3:26Penalty
3rd 4:27Penalty
3rd 5:11Penalty
3rd 5:55Mike Hardman (1–2)5v4 · grade A · 13 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
3rd 18:51Jackson Cates (1–3)empty net · medium · 16 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
3rd 20:00Penalty