Milwaukee Admirals at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Milwaukee Admirals

4:3

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

MILTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

65%35%

xG: 4.12.8
High danger: 76
Chances: 1714
Shots: 3721

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal21

17Scoring chances14

7High-danger chances6

4.09Expected goals2.80

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–5	4–3	1–0	1.1–0.6
2nd	11–9	5–5	2–2	1.2–1.1
3rd	15–7	8–6	4–4	1.8–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	0:11	+0.027 pts
TEX	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 33
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.09
GSAx: +0.09

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.80
GSAx: -0.20

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:00Penalty
1st 3:07Matěj Blümel (0–1)5v4 · low · wrist · 51 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
1st 10:37Penalty
1st 10:37Penalty
1st 12:02Adam Wilsby (1–1)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 14:16Penalty
1st 18:46Penalty
1st 19:08Penalty
1st 19:24Penalty
2nd 6:22Alex Petrovic (1–2)low · wrist · 29 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 19:34Kyle McDonald (1–3)high · tip · 8 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
3rd 12:20Juuso Pärssinen (2–3)medium · backhand · 9 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 13:03Jasper Weatherby (3–3)high · snap · 20 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 13:10Penalty
3rd 16:42Tye Felhaber (4–3)low · wrist · 29 ft · beat Rémi Poirier