Tucson Roadrunners at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

4:1

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

TUCSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

73%27%

xG: 3.62.3
High danger: 53
Chances: 1110
Shots: 3926

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal26

11Scoring chances10

5High-danger chances3

3.58Expected goals2.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–9	2–3	2–2	1.1–0.8
2nd	15–9	6–5	1–1	1.5–0.9
3rd	12–8	3–2	2–0	1.0–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	3	6:15 of the 3rd	13:45	13:45	+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 35
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.58
GSAx: -0.42

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 25
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.31
GSAx: +1.31

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:01Penalty
1st 3:01Penalty
1st 5:36Penalty
1st 10:32Penalty
1st 14:22Hunter Drew (1–0)low · 34 ft · beat Calle Clang
1st 16:59Penalty
2nd 4:57Penalty
2nd 6:59Penalty
2nd 6:59Penalty
2nd 10:32Penalty
2nd 10:32Penalty
2nd 12:23Penalty
2nd 16:23Penalty
2nd 18:10Victor Söderström (2–0)5v4 · medium · rebound · 59 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 19:06Penalty
3rd 6:15Cameron Hebig (3–0)high · 21 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 15:02Konnor Smith (3–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 15:49Curtis Douglas (4–1)high · 8 ft · beat Calle Clang