AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, April 6

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Coachella Valley Firebirds
2:1
Final / OT
Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

CVABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
64%36%
xG
3.02.1
High danger
54
Chances
99
Shots
2525

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ABB above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal25
9Scoring chances9
5High-danger chances4
2.96Expected goals2.14

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–113–21–10.6–0.7
2nd8–52–30–20.5–0.5
3rd9–83–33–11.2–0.8
OT2–11–11–00.6–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV116:56 of the 3rd3:042:16+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo
Shots faced
25
Saves
23
Allowed
2
xGA
2.96
GSAx
+0.96
Chris Driedger
Shots faced
25
Saves
24
Allowed
1
xGA
2.14
GSAx
+1.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:14Penalty
  • 1st 1:35Penalty
  • 1st 1:35Penalty
  • 1st 7:58Penalty
  • 1st 18:12Penalty
  • 2nd 5:15Penalty
  • 2nd 6:14Penalty
  • 2nd 6:14Penalty
  • 2nd 6:14Penalty
  • 2nd 19:48Penalty
  • 3rd 4:08Jonathan Lekkerimäki (0–1)low · 35 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 3rd 13:35Penalty
  • 3rd 19:12Max McCormick (1–1)grade A · 22 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • OT 3:28Max McCormick (2–1)grade A · 9 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo