Hartford Wolf Pack at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Hartford Wolf Pack

1:4

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

HFDCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

31%69%

xG: 2.53.4
High danger: 49
Chances: 1213
Shots: 2629

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal29

12Scoring chances13

4High-danger chances9

2.50Expected goals3.43

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–15	6–4	3–1	1.2–1.2
2nd	9–7	5–4	0–4	0.9–1.2
3rd	5–7	1–5	1–4	0.4–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.43
GSAx: -0.57

Spencer Knight

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 25
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.50
GSAx: +1.50

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:07Penalty
1st 7:14Mitchell Vande Sompel (0–1)low · 64 ft · beat Dylan Garand
1st 8:24Penalty
1st 13:24Penalty
1st 18:50Penalty
2nd 5:13Wilmer Skoog (0–2)high · 14 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 7:26Will Lockwood (0–3)low · 36 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 10:14Penalty
2nd 10:14Penalty
2nd 13:18Penalty
2nd 13:18Penalty
2nd 13:18Penalty
2nd 16:24Penalty
3rd 2:23Penalty
3rd 6:34Penalty
3rd 10:04Mackie Samoskevich (0–4)high · 16 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 11:46Penalty
3rd 11:46Penalty
3rd 11:46Penalty
3rd 19:56Brett Berard (1–4)high · 6 ft · beat Spencer Knight