AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, April 7

Utica Comets at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Utica Comets
5:1
Final
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

UTCTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
45%55%
xG
2.12.2
High danger
34
Chances
107
Shots
2130

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal30
10Scoring chances7
3High-danger chances4
2.09Expected goals2.19

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–73–10–10.5–0.3
2nd8–75–11–10.9–0.5
3rd7–162–52–20.6–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nico Daws
Shots faced
30
Saves
29
Allowed
1
xGA
2.19
GSAx
+1.19
Luke Cavallin
Shots faced
21
Saves
16
Allowed
5
xGA
2.09
GSAx
-2.91

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:15Max Willman (1–0)medium · 9 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
  • 1st 6:44Penalty
  • 1st 10:53Xavier Parent (2–0)medium · 27 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
  • 1st 11:51Penalty
  • 2nd 1:12Penalty
  • 2nd 1:12Penalty
  • 2nd 1:12Penalty
  • 2nd 1:12Penalty
  • 2nd 1:12Penalty
  • 2nd 3:51Justin Dowling (3–0)5v4 · low · 58 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
  • 2nd 10:22Penalty
  • 2nd 16:51Ryan Fitzgerald (4–0)high · rebound · 20 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
  • 2nd 19:33Penalty
  • 3rd 2:17Penalty
  • 3rd 6:16Joseph Blandisi (4–1)high · 10 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 3rd 8:16Penalty
  • 3rd 9:03Penalty
  • 3rd 12:09Penalty
  • 3rd 16:45Nathan Légaré (5–1)empty net · low · 84 ft · beat Luke Cavallin