Colorado Eagles at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Colorado Eagles

4:2

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

COLHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

81%19%

xG: 3.72.2
High danger: 92
Chances: 1510
Shots: 3124

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal24

15Scoring chances10

9High-danger chances2

3.73Expected goals2.25

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	3–2	2–0	1.0–0.7
2nd	14–8	8–6	5–2	1.9–1.1
3rd	7–6	4–2	2–0	0.9–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Vikman

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.73
GSAx: -0.27

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: +0.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:35Cal Burke (1–0)high · tip · 11 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
1st 7:51Penalty
1st 7:51Penalty
1st 9:24Penalty
1st 16:50Penalty
2nd 3:53Sheldon Rempal (1–1)medium · wrist · 13 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 11:11Jonas Røndbjerg (1–2)medium · snap · 16 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 12:08Penalty
3rd 3:46Penalty
3rd 3:46Penalty
3rd 4:51Spencer Smallman (2–2)grade A · wrist · rebound · 10 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
3rd 7:48Fredrik Olofsson (3–2)high · tip · 17 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
3rd 8:57Penalty
3rd 14:36Penalty
3rd 14:36Penalty
3rd 18:29Riley Tufte (4–2)empty net · low · wrist · 108 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
3rd 19:44Penalty