Coachella Valley Firebirds at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Coachella Valley Firebirds

7:2

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

CVABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

73%27%

xG: 2.72.1
High danger: 31
Chances: 107
Shots: 3129

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal29

10Scoring chances7

3High-danger chances1

2.67Expected goals2.13

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–8	4–1	0–0	1.0–0.5
2nd	15–6	5–2	3–0	1.4–0.6
3rd	4–15	1–4	0–1	0.3–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	6	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.13
GSAx: +0.13

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 15
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.72
GSAx: -2.28

Zach Sawchenko

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 9
Allowed: 3
xGA: 0.95
GSAx: -2.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:31John Hayden (1–0)medium · 15 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
1st 10:58Ian McKinnon (2–0)low · 14 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
1st 12:27Penalty
1st 16:02Cameron Hughes (3–0)low · 36 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
2nd 7:04Luke Henman (4–0)high · 22 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 13:13John Stevens (4–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 14:03Cale Fleury (5–1)low · 54 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 16:45Lleyton Roed (6–1)low · 59 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 17:40Penalty
2nd 19:23Kole Lind (7–1)5v4 · medium · 14 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 5:16Penalty
3rd 10:24Arshdeep Bains (7–2)low · 39 ft · beat Aleš Stezka