San Diego Gulls at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

San Diego Gulls

4:2

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

SDBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 2.21.7
High danger: 22
Chances: 93
Shots: 2924

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal24

9Scoring chances3

2High-danger chances2

2.21Expected goals1.72

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–9	5–1	1–1	1.3–0.7
2nd	6–7	2–0	1–0	0.4–0.3
3rd	10–8	2–2	0–1	0.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack Campbell

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.21
GSAx: -1.79

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.72
GSAx: -0.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:41Chase De Leo (1–0)grade A · wrist · rebound · 9 ft · beat Jack Campbell
1st 7:04Andrew Agozzino (2–0)low · wrist · 28 ft · beat Jack Campbell
1st 13:12Chase De Leo (3–0)medium · wrist · 28 ft · beat Jack Campbell
1st 16:07Cameron Wright (3–1)grade A · wrist · rebound · 10 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 7:01Penalty
3rd 15:11Penalty
3rd 17:37Philip Broberg (3–2)low · wrist · 32 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 18:57Andrew Agozzino (4–2)empty net · low · 134 ft · beat Jack Campbell