Abbotsford Canucks at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Abbotsford Canucks

3:1

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

ABBCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

74%26%

xG: 2.71.6
High danger: 42
Chances: 95
Shots: 3525

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal25

9Scoring chances5

4High-danger chances2

2.74Expected goals1.61

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–5	7–0	2–0	1.4–0.2
2nd	13–8	0–3	0–1	0.6–0.8
3rd	10–12	2–2	2–1	0.7–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Murphy

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 32
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.74
GSAx: -0.26

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.61
GSAx: +0.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:59Penalty
1st 11:37Penalty
1st 16:51Penalty
2nd 6:22Sheldon Dries (1–0)low · snap · 41 ft · beat Connor Murphy
2nd 9:58Penalty
3rd 2:26Penalty
3rd 11:09Tristen Nielsen (2–0)low · 24 ft · beat Connor Murphy
3rd 16:39Penalty
3rd 17:01Jordan Oesterle (2–1)5v4 · low · wrist · 57 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 19:41Chase Wouters (3–1)empty net · low · backhand · 137 ft · beat Connor Murphy