AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, April 12

Springfield Thunderbirds at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Springfield Thunderbirds
3:5
Final
Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

SPRHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
21%79%
xG
2.04.2
High danger
38
Chances
817
Shots
2739

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HFD above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal39
8Scoring chances17
3High-danger chances8
1.98Expected goals4.25

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–153–72–30.8–1.9
2nd8–133–71–30.6–1.4
3rd8–112–30–20.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−3−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR30:00 of the 3rd20:009:38+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis
Shots faced
39
Saves
34
Allowed
5
xGA
4.25
GSAx
-0.75
Louis Domingue
Shots faced
27
Saves
24
Allowed
3
xGA
1.98
GSAx
-1.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:55Riley Nash (0–1)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 1st 17:27Mathias Laferrière (1–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 2nd 3:19Penalty
  • 2nd 6:41Alex Belzile (1–2)low · 43 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 2nd 7:14Penalty
  • 2nd 10:30Jake Leschyshyn (1–3)high · 7 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 2nd 15:22Penalty
  • 2nd 18:18Blake Hillman (1–4)low · 59 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 3rd 4:18Penalty
  • 3rd 4:18Penalty
  • 3rd 4:18Penalty
  • 3rd 4:18Penalty
  • 3rd 6:34Mikhail Abramov (2–4)medium · 27 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 3rd 7:55Adam Gaudette (3–4)medium · 9 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 3rd 10:17Penalty
  • 3rd 19:37Louis Domingue (3–5)empty net · low · 171 ft · beat Colten Ellis