Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

1:4

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

LVHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

17%83%

xG: 1.62.9
High danger: 14
Chances: 614
Shots: 2529

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal29

6Scoring chances14

1High-danger chances4

1.57Expected goals2.89

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–9	3–4	1–2	0.6–0.9
2nd	5–11	1–6	0–1	0.3–1.2
3rd	11–9	2–4	0–1	0.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	3	11:56 of the 3rd	8:04	8:04	+0.011 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.89
GSAx: -1.11

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.57
GSAx: +0.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:19Penalty
1st 12:18Penalty
1st 14:48Matthew Phillips (0–1)high · 153 ft · beat Cal Petersen
1st 15:47Penalty
1st 15:47Penalty
2nd 2:26Penalty
2nd 6:02Penalty
2nd 6:38Ethen Frank (0–2)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Cal Petersen
2nd 10:40Garrett Wilson (1–2)medium · 158 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 13:14Penalty
2nd 15:07Penalty
2nd 15:07Penalty
2nd 15:07Penalty
2nd 19:00Penalty
3rd 3:22Penalty
3rd 4:54Penalty
3rd 4:54Penalty
3rd 6:34Logan Day (1–3)low · 148 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 11:56Joe Snively (1–4)medium · 7 ft · beat Cal Petersen