AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, April 12

Utica Comets at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Utica Comets
4:5
Final / OT
Providence Bruins

The sheet

UTCPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
66%34%
xG
2.82.0
High danger
53
Chances
125
Shots
2923

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
PRO above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal23
12Scoring chances5
5High-danger chances3
2.79Expected goals1.99

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–96–22–11.2–0.7
2nd9–83–21–20.7–0.9
3rd7–43–12–00.8–0.3
OT1–20–00–00.0–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

UTC−3−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
UTC34:39 of the 3rd15:219:26+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Bussi
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
2.79
GSAx
-1.21
Nico Daws
Shots faced
23
Saves
18
Allowed
5
xGA
1.99
GSAx
-3.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:15Penalty
  • 1st 8:27Penalty
  • 1st 10:39Riley Duran (0–1)low · 40 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 1st 12:34Jimmy Lambert (0–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 1st 13:17Penalty
  • 1st 13:17Penalty
  • 1st 19:13Penalty
  • 1st 19:13Penalty
  • 1st 19:22Penalty
  • 2nd 0:15Penalty
  • 2nd 1:36Brian Halonen (1–2)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 2nd 6:52Oskar Steen (1–3)grade A · 8 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 2nd 19:59Penalty
  • 3rd 4:39Oskar Steen (1–4)medium · 34 ft · beat Nico Daws
  • 3rd 9:56Brian Halonen (2–4)medium · 16 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 3rd 14:42Penalty
  • 3rd 15:06Justin Dowling (3–4)5v4 · low · 43 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 3rd 18:08Brian Halonen (4–4)low · 22 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • OT 3:10Patrick Brown (4–5)low · 25 ft · beat Nico Daws