Bridgeport Islanders at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Bridgeport Islanders

2:5

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

BRIWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

54%46%

xG: 3.32.1
High danger: 54
Chances: 99
Shots: 3720

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal20

9Scoring chances9

5High-danger chances4

3.29Expected goals2.06

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	1–5	1–2	0.6–1.1
2nd	19–5	4–2	4–1	1.9–0.4
3rd	10–6	4–2	0–1	0.8–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.28
GSAx: +1.28

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 15
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.06
GSAx: -2.94

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:15Penalty
1st 8:51Avery Hayes (0–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 42 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 10:32Beau Jelsma (0–2)medium · tip · 34 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 16:57Brian Pinho (1–2)grade A · tip · rebound · 14 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
1st 18:44Sam Poulin (1–3)medium · tip · 9 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 4:10Penalty
2nd 18:20Ruslan Iskhakov (2–3)grade A · tip · rebound · 9 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
3rd 9:58Austin Rueschhoff (2–4)medium · slap · 30 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 19:51Avery Hayes (2–5)empty net · low · wrist · 66 ft · beat Jakub Skarek