AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, April 12

Belleville Senators at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Belleville Senators
6:3
Final
Rochester Americans

The sheet

BELROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
13%87%
xG
1.83.6
High danger
15
Chances
612
Shots
2441

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ROC above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal41
6Scoring chances12
1High-danger chances5
1.76Expected goals3.60

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–102–21–10.5–0.6
2nd10–224–80–40.8–2.3
3rd7–90–20–00.4–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ROC−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ROC212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mads Søgaard
Shots faced
41
Saves
38
Allowed
3
xGA
3.60
GSAx
+0.60
Devon Levi
Shots faced
24
Saves
18
Allowed
6
xGA
1.76
GSAx
-4.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:04Penalty
  • 1st 8:33Penalty
  • 1st 10:30Zack Ostapchuk (1–0)5v4 · low · 37 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 1st 10:53Nikolas Matinpalo (2–0)low · 62 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 1st 17:19Penalty
  • 1st 17:19Penalty
  • 2nd 0:35Graham Slaggert (2–1)high · 9 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 6:01Penalty
  • 2nd 6:32Penalty
  • 2nd 7:16Mason Jobst (2–2)5v4 · high · 25 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 3rd 2:20Nikolas Matinpalo (3–2)low · 60 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 3:52Penalty
  • 3rd 4:03Josh Currie (4–2)5v4 · low · 53 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 4:36Penalty
  • 3rd 18:35Tyler Kleven (5–2)empty net · low · 184 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 19:02Justin Richards (5–3)low · 31 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 3rd 19:58Wyatt Bongiovanni (6–3)empty net · low · 23 ft · beat Devon Levi